For many sports fans, betting on the outcome of the events they are watching can be a fun and rewarding pastime; however it takes more than mere luck to make any kind of real money. If you really want the best possible chance to make money on sports betting, then you need to know a few fundamentals about odds, percentage potential and how to solve the value of a bet. In this post, we’ll tell you what value means in the context of sports betting, why it’s so important for sustainable success and how professional bettors make use of it as standard – with some historic Super Bowls to help illustrate our points.

What is Sports Betting Value?

And the fundamental of sports betting skills is to be able to see value at the odds. The term sports betting value would refer to the percent difference between the actual probability of a given outcome and the odds provided through sportsbooks. Simply put, value is created when the bookmakers odds do not reflect the true chances of an event occurring.

For instance, pretend a sportsbook is giving +200 for a team to win but in your own calculations you estimate the team has 50% of winning it. Given the fact that however, +200 are close to what the true odds should be (+100 or 50% chance), there is value here. This idea is crucial to a lot of other sports betting skills — you’re searching for conditions in which the odds are favorable thanks to your research and analysis, giving you an opportunity to play smarter bets that can deliver long-term value.

The Importance of Value in Sports Betting For Long Term Success

Consistency and the long run with sports betting are some of the most difficult things for any investor to accomplish. Most bettors have a few good nights but in the long run betting on favorites alone or a combination of faves and luck doesn’t win. That’s why the value in sports betting is so critical—it helps you gain an edge against the bookies and gets you to the point where you are able to make profitable choices over time.

In typical betting environments, a lot of people tend to concentrate on favorites– teams or players believed have higher chances of winning. But, all too often, the sportsbooks overinflate the lines on favorites because people just reeeeeeeally like betting on favorites which means there is value to be found in taking the underdog. By concentrating on value, you are hunting down mispriced odds which can generate profits over the long term even if every bet you place is not a winning one.

The key to long-term success in sports betting is not necessarily picking the winner of a particular game, but rather spotting value in the odds.

VALUE BETTING WORKS Long run value betting will increase the size of your bankroll, even if you are only winning a certain percentage of bets.

How Pros Find Value in Sports Betting

Value betting is what professional gamblers do best. Here’s how they work on mastering their sports betting skills and maintain hitting the money.

Research and Data Analysis:

These professionals spend hours studying teams, players, matchups etc that could influence the outcome of a game. They scour statistics, injury reports, weather conditions and trends to calculate the odds of an outcome actually happening. Once they do that, it’s just a matter of comparing their calculations to the odds set by the sportsbook. When they come across discrepancies, they make value bets.

Tracking Line Movement:

Bookmakers move numbers based on betting behavior. If a lot of people rush the same side of a bet, the sportsbook may move the odds to offset their risk. The sharp bettors have their eyes concentrated on these movements, as they usually present potential value. If they believe (from the action of the public) that betting on one side distorted the price, they take the opportunity to bet on it again.

Contrarian Betting:

The public loves betting on the favorites or well-known teams/players, which makes sportsbooks inflate the numbers in those sides’ direction. Sharps take advantage of that bias and bet against the public. For instance, if the favorite is ‘over-hyped’ in the media, the pro would bet on the underdog where they can get greater value based on true odds.

Statistical Models and Analytics:

A lot of pros utilize computer-based models to predict game results. These models are based on all sorts of things, from individual player performance to team dynamics. Professional bettors can find value bets that other bettors don’t by matching data from the model to odds available at sportsbooks.

Super Bowl Case: Looking for Value in Action

The Super Bowl is clearly one of the widely watched and gambled on events in the world when it comes to sports betting value. Here are two previous Super Bowl instances in which professional bettors found value in an underdog team:

Super Bowl LI (2017) New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

In Super Bowl LI, the New England Patriots trailed by 25 points to the Atlanta Falcons. Down by this huge deficit, the Patriots staged an amazing comeback and won 34-28 in overtime. So-called sharp bettors, who saw value in the Patriots’ odds during their darkest days, took advantage. The public had pounded the Falcons, but sharp bettors believed that the Patriots, with Tom Brady at quarterback, still had more than a puncher’s chance to pull off an upset. The public bias dropped the Patriots to – 6.5 from their original line of – 7 down to them eventually earning + a $ played on New England, and whoever either took advantage of that gift or won big if they went for lower must be laughing at themselves here when they heard about Vegas’ losses.

Super Bowl XLII (2008): New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

The New York Giants entered Super Bowl XLII as 12-point underdogs to the then-undefeated New England Patriots. The majority of the public money was on the Patriots, but there were some sharp value bettors who knew a lot about the Giants’ defense. What they saw was that the betting line on the Giants had become inflated by all of the attention given to the Patriots, and it began to create a potential value play for those taking them as an underdog. The Giants’ 17-14 triumph was one of the biggest upsets in the history of the Super Bowl, and those who recognized that value in the Giants were rewarded.

Conclusion: Become a Better Sports Bettor with Value Betting

If you’re looking to better your sports betting techniques, then focusing on the betting value is all-important. Do you want to use data for smarter decision-making to fuel sustainable profitability by finding value opportunities where the odds are mispriced? This isn’t just about selecting winners, but consistently sifting through situations where the odds exceed the actual probability of outcomes.

Sharps know how to identify value for them it’s not guesswork, they do research, analyse the market and use statistical models. They don’t go with the flow or make emotional wagers — they look for value and are always in a position to take advantage of lines at which they can win an edge against the sportsbooks.

Use these techniques and think in value betting you will improve your game, win more money, hopefully see you long term very good winner with sports betting. Whether you’re new to the game, or an intermediate bettor who wants to take betting more seriously, it’s well worth your time to learn how to identify a value bet in sports.